The 4 urban myths of FPL 25/26

Score big because the rest of the world are taking on risks, i.e. "reverse-differential" points!

Here are the four big "reverse-differentials" because few people are acting on these insights:

1. Salah is over-priced, as described in our standalone article (which came out before Community Shield made more people concerned ).
   TL;DR: Salah is priced (and loved) for his season-long performance but that price does not account for his dip towards the end of the season; he did worse this pre-season compared to his promising pre-season last year; and of course, he is causing worries in the Community Shield.
   
   Many people have held on by justifying that the risk is too big, i.e. they will fall behind if Salah does well. But that's not a performance-based reason, and the reverse holds true - you will have a big lead if he flops!
   
2. Nottingham will struggle for clean sheets and disappoint the many who have its keeper / defenders / defensive mid.
   Why is no one pointing out that their impressive defence wasn't the way they ended the season? They failed to keep a clean sheet in the final 9 fixtures of last season when they needed to do well, and consequently lost fourth place. So it wasn't for lack of trying.
   
   Sure they kept some clean sheets during pre-season - but against weak teams whom they failed to score against (most recently against Al Qadsiah). The real takeaway is not about a good defence but a loss of quality.
   
3. Everton's defence will not be so reliable either.
   Zero clean sheets in pre-season friendlies. That's before centreback Branthwaite's injury. Why continue with Tarkowski who is priced at a premium based on his performances last season?
   
4. Fernandes will struggle, at least at the start.
   There's too much uncertainty given the new-look strike force (Mbeumo, Cunha, Sesko). We agree that Fernandes can make up for it with his all-round play clocking up the defence contribution points BUT now is not the time to buy him at 9.0, when the first five fixtures include Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, and even a potentially tricky fixture away from Fulham.

In conclusion: Sure, there's no guarantee the above will all happen, but FPL is a game of risk/reward: these players' prices (and the majority of FPL players) are ignoring very real risks, so you can gain an outsized advantage by recognising them.

Stay tuned for our final-look team coming out within the hour!