[Republished] GW5 - objectively the most volatile, our degenerate pick, and other insights

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GW5 is objectively the most volatile given that most matches don't have a "clear projected winner" - where bookmakers see one side as more likely to win than not, by offering odds of less than 2:

(from oddschecker.com)

• Only Liverpool is seen as highly likely to win its match against Everton (but this is a derby and Liverpool's attacking returns are fluid right now);
• Arsenal's odds are only slightly under 2 - in a match that essentially pits the league's current best defence against offence.
  

2. Salah promises to be the best captain pick, but only due to this setup. Most significantly, he outperformed in midweek for Champions League, making it unclear if the earlier poor trend has shifted. And anything can happen in a single gameweek (a good player can blank or a poor player can haul).

• We will readily take this bet as part of the volatility; there's just no point in bringing in Salah for a single fixture. The broader context is the "Anti-Salah" bet is net-net more profitable due to the "Captain Haaland" trade.
• And things may even turn out well (or not) in this most volatile week. (Our captain pick is Semenyo vs Newcastle as part of the Volatile theme.)

3. There are two ways to play Gameweek 5 and we are doing both:
4. Ignore Gameweek 5; build for the future by raising cash (small moves that add to your bank) or saving tranfers.

• A period of Haaland captainship is coming that will dominate the FPL community in the subsequent GW 6-8 - people will buy Haaland if they don't have him, either by selling Salah or having both. Our Haaland "profit margin" will be reduced this period (except against the most diehard Salah fans).

• A week after the start of "Haaland captainship", it'll make sense to double up (or even triple up) on Arsenal's defence as they enter a golden fixture run

• Brave souls can even start loading up on Arsenal defenders this week since (a) they are favourites against Manchester City (b) their visit to Newcastle sees the host still trying to find their feet in attack (c) the Timber and Calafiori are practically "fixture-proof" top defenders in scintillating form.

In this context, we attempting a high-risk, high-return, degenerate pick whom we think is more likely blank than do well. But it makes sense overall as it (a) helps us raise cash for the coming weeks, and (b) we are selling a player who may no longer be in the first-team (Spurs' Brennan Johnson).

Burnley's Jaidon Anthony!

Burnley's attack returns are erratic as their players are spirited but technically weak.

Nottingham is also likely to remain defensively tough despite the managerial change, due to squad quality.

But at 5.5m, we are happy to pay for a joint-sixth midfielder that we will just deploy periodically (in the subsequent 3 out of 6 gameweeks: Leeds, Wolves, and West Ham)

May the FPL gods shine on you!

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