FPL 25/26 - key watchpoints

Every start to the FPL season contains a set of questions to be addressed; every FPL squad contains a set of assumptions to these questions.

How well you start the season will signify your destiny. Starting well is crucial given how FPL winners keep their transfers to a minimum.

Last year's FPL winner avoided Haaland while building his team around Salah; and leaving out England players due to their Euro 2024 run (interview with Premier League).

Here's our current take on the next season's big questions. Do you agree?

How will Arsenal respond after its cupless season? (Current vibe: wait-and-see)

Understandably ended the season in a drift with nothing left to chase for, with Saka playing limited minutes to protect his fitness

But remains a credible title challenger. Is fundamentally strong and expected to stay defensively solid (e.g. its 1-0 win in late-May over a Newcastle that was chasing champions league).

Complicated set of opening games (Opta thinks it is the second hardest) means we must cautiously weigh its players against the FPL prices. (Arsenal starts away at Old Trafford, and plays away at Liverpool, and at home to Manchester City)

Will Aston Villa become a neglected club for FPL players? (Current vibe: bad)

• Status as a premium club likely to keep prices high without commensurate returns for its players.
• Bargain player Rogers is likely to rise in value; while other players have not shone.
• In attack, Watkins struggled to justify his price tag, while points were weakly distributed among midfielders Rashford, Tielemans, Asensio. Defenders Konsa and Digna were cheap but not compelling buys.
• Opening fixtures are not compelling: at home to Notts, a defensive-minded Everton, and a tricky Brentford, while away to Crystal Palance and Newcastle.

Will Bournemouth be destabilised by potential key departures? (Current vibe: bad)

• Already had a largely lukewarm end to the season since end-February (including losses to Wolves and Ipswich). The loss of Huijsen and potential losses of Kerkez and Zabarnyi are likely to pose changes to defense and possession (which will hurt offence).
• Evanilson did well during this stretch, and is worth monitoring during the pre-season. In contrast, Semenyo’s final game haul must be interpreted as part of his inconsistent returns this season.

Will Brentford do as well without manager Thomas Frank and possibly talsiman Mbeumo? (Current vibe: wait-and-see)

• No good reason to believe in new keeper Kelleher and striker Wissa until the situation clarifies.
• Last year’s pattern may not hold depending on its next manager. i.e. we cann assume it will still have a better defense record away than at home; or keep a setup that generates save points for its keeper.

Will Brighton & Hove Albion be a surprise package for this season? (Current vibe: positive)

• Rightly seen as an erratic team, Brighton however had a positive end to the season that may fly under the radar: 3-2 win over Liverpool; 4-1 win over Tottenham; 2-0 win over a resurgent Wolves, and 1-1 draw with a champions-league-chasing Newcastle. Some of these teams (Liverpool and Tottenham) had nothing much to play for – but neither did Brighton!
• A mid-table position may deliver value prices for key attackers especially if any of them outperforms in pre-season, e.g. Joao Pedro, Welbeck, Mitoma.

Can Burnley tempt us this season? (Current vibe: bad)

• Promoted clubs are inherently high-risk / meh-reward. This season, even highly-rated Delap had two attacking returns for his final one-third of the season (11 out of 13 games had two points or lower); his teammate Leif Davis did not justify the hype as an attacking defender. They are not actually priced better than incumbent clubs, e.g. compared to Rogers’ 5.0 price tag last season.
• Starts away to Tottenham, and plays away to Manchester United, and hosts Liverpool. Only possible play is to rotate in a budget defender against Sunderland in gameweek three, given Burnley’s stingy defence in the Championship – but even that is doubtful as Burnley plays away.

How will the high-risk / high-reward Chelsea pay out? (Current vibe: wait-and-see)

• Tricky much? A top-four team with a talented but underperforming Cole Palmer. An erratic performance at the ongoing Club World Cup. A sizzling 4-1 win over Real Betis at the Europa Conference league.
• And starts next year with good fixtures on paper only – takes on Crystal Palace (FA cup winner) with two other London derbies with lower-half teams, Fulham and West Ham.
• A good team no doubt, but fantasy league favours the patient and cautious, while the gamemasters won’t give us cheap prices to justify a punt – so a no for now.

Will the powers-that-be make Crystal Palace a value-for-money proposition, or price the players shrewdly? (Current vibe: wait-and-see) 

• No one doubts its FA cup triumph or good league performances. Eze belatedly fulfilled his promise towards the end of the season; Munoz is the most attacking defender of the league; and Mateta was priced reasonably.
• A tricky start to the season (away to Chelsea, at home to Nottingham, away to Aston Villa) may justify a wait-and-see approach before they take on Burnley and Everton next.

Will Everton deliver on its clear promise of a decent defence and opportunistic offence? (Current vibe: positive)

• David Moyes’s return has yielded a stingy defence supported by Pickford that pulled off a dogged 1-0 win at St James Park over Newcastle fighting for champions league. Despite its defence focus, Beto and Ndiaye may still earn their keep at a correct price.

Can Fulham offer any attractive FPL edge or end up as a sidelines team? (Current vibe: bad)

• Robinson’s and Smith Rowe’s hype as bargain players started well but arguably fizzled out; it was hard to capitalise on the mercurial Raul.
• We can expect FPL players to focus elsewhere during its initial challenging fixtures (away to Brighton, at home to Manchester United, away to Chelsea)

Will Leeds United prove to be more than just a promoted club? (Current vibe: bad)

• Promoted clubs are inherently high-risk / meh-reward. This season, even highly-rated Delap had two attacking returns for his final one-third of the season (11 out of 13 games had two points or lower); his teammate Leif Davis did not justify the hype as an attacking defender. They are not actually priced better than incumbent clubs, e.g. compared to Rogers’ 5.0 price tag last season.
• No good reason to start picking up players – it hosts the defensively stingy Everton, before taking on the non-straightforwards of Brighton (at home), Arsenal (away), Newcastle (home), and Fulham and Wolves (both away).

Can Liverpool justify its price premiums? (Current vibe: wait-and-see)

• Salah will likely be FPL’s most expensive player, making him high-risk / high-reward no matter his quality, just as Haaland was last year.
• Frimpong has large boots to fill with Trent’s departure; and Wirtz may carry a high price tag despite the usual risks of whether a player can adapt to EPL.
• Uneven set of fixtures that begin at home to Bournemouth before facing Newcastle (away) and Arsenal (home), before a safer series starting with Burnley (away) and Everton (home).

 Will Manchester City (and Haaland) dominate once more? (Current vibe: bad)

• The ongoing Club World Cup may give hints on whether Rodri’s return will restore Manchester City’s world-leading pedigree.
• Marmoush has yet to prove that he can perform away – which could mean the question boils down to Haaland-or-nothing when Wolves hosts them in gameweek 1.

Will Manchester United improve this season? (Current vibe: bad)

• Cunha will surely increase Man Utd’s attacking output (a key issue that lost the club the Europa league final). But any improvement this season is likely muzzled at the start with hardest opening fixtures in the league (according to Opta).

Does Newcastle United’s party only start from gameweek 3 onwards? (Current vibe: wait-and-see)

• Starts away to derby rivals Aston Villa, followed by a home fixture to Liverpool.
• Only Isak’s quality warrants an early punt; otherwise it’s best to wade in afterwards when Newcastle takes on Leeds (away) and Wolves (home).

Can Nottingham Forest replicate its outperformance? (Current vibe: bad)

• Fairytale season already sputtered towards the end with losses to Brentford, Chelsea, Everton, and most significantly a dismal 2-2 draw to Leicester.
• Defence solidity is therefore a doubt. Makes sense to steer clear of the first two fixtures (at home to Brentford and away to Crystal Palace) before acting on its easier fixtures against West Ham, Burnley, and Sunderland.

Are Sunderland’s easy opening fixtures worth a punt? (Current vibe: bad)

• Promoted clubs are inherently high-risk / meh-reward. This season, even highly-rated Delap had two attacking returns for his final one-third of the season (11 out of 13 games had two points or lower); his teammate Leif Davis did not justify the hype as an attacking defender. They are not actually priced better than incumbent clubs, e.g. compared to Rogers’ 5.0 price tag last season.
• Pre-season results will advise whether and who to bet on.

 Will Tottenham kick off a fresh start under new manager Thomas Frank? (Current vibe: positive)

• Starts against Burnley, and (after an away game to Manchester City) plays Bournemouth (home) and West Ham (away), with games against Wolves (home) and Leeds (away) thereafter.
• An encouraging pre-season can justify punts on talented and possibly value-for-money players such as Pedro Porro, Johnson, and (if prices are kind) Maddison, Son, Solanke.

Will West Ham a.k.a. Bowen United do well? (Current vibe: positive)

• An away start at Sunderland is likely to attract buyers of Bowen who is expected to do decently rain or shine, even against the subsequent Chelsea (home), Nottingham (away) and Tottenham (home).
• Only spanner is if FPL pre-empts us with a high price tag for him!

Will Wolves do well after its opening game to Man City? (Current vibe: bad)

• Cunha’s and Ait Nouri’s departure means no star player that merits FPL players’ attention.

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