[Edited for sharpness] GW4 and general insights

We are re-publishing this article to be sharper on why we made certain decisions, e.g. (a) explaining the "macro factors" why GW4 is somehow more unclear than GW3 (despite having one more week of information to digest), and (b) to describe the broader principles behind our decisions, for which we will do an after-action-review (AAR) next week. The actual points/choices are the same.

We are fixated on decision/macro structure as part of FPL90 cents' philosophy that FPL is a means to an end - a platform for you to reflectively think about your own decision-making skills, improve them, and apply it in your real life (work or home). Enjoy!

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Buying Grealish is more risky than you think.

• Yes, Everton is doing well. But a good rule-of-thumb of bringing in a new player is: "if a player blanks in the first match", would I still be excited to have him for the subsequent matches?"
  
  The answer needs to be yes, because (a) no one can guarantee returns for any single match and (b) any transfer should be justified by 2-3 gameweeks where your player deserves first team. (The only exception for this rule is bringing in a convincing captain.)
  
• Applying this rule to Grealish, the answer to whether he deserves to be in your team after GW4 is not a straight yes/no, but an "Errr..." because of Everton's high-risk / mid-reward fixture run.
  
• Everton doesn't have an outright bad fixture run per se (especially since they seem formidable at home), it's just that every opponent is not straightforward: a desperate Aston Villa; a derby with league champions Liverpool; a possibly resurgent West Ham; then Community Shield/FA cup holders Crystal Palace; Man City; and Tottenham.

• So at 6.7m, Grealish is priced fairly at best while requiring a few Hail Marys along the way. It's possible he does well (e.g. at home against West Ham) but we will also not be surprised (and shouldn't blame "bad luck") if he largely gives blanks.

Oddly, GW4 (when transfer window is closed) is somehow more uncertain than GW3 (when window was open).

Transfer disruptions

• Liverpool is in an odd place despite a good fixture against Burnley on paper because we don't know how Isak will shake things up: Gakpo is a great value pick but will his minutes be affected by Isak's arrival? Will Isak settle straight in? Will he dampen or raise Ekitike's returns?
  
  Liverpool's fixtures are watch-and-see after Burnley - a Merseywise derby with Everton; then away to a plucky Crystal Palace; then away to Club World Cup winners Chelsea.
  
  So our approach for this gameweek is kept to sensible risk diversification: because we have no Liverpool attackers (which paid off in our wildcard last week when they played Arsenal), we sold our injured Cunha to have a stake in the juicy match and Liverpool's attacking prowess as a whole. As it's essentially a punt, it doesn't make sense do it expensively on Isak/Ekitike - and definitely not Salah!)
  

Best two out of three?

• GW4 is also tricky for teams that showed new inconsistencies at Gameweek 3 when things seemed somewhat clearer at GW2:
  
  • Which Brentford will turn up when it hosts Chelsea and faces Joao Pedro? Initially, Brentford seemed to have reasserted itself at GW2 after a poor season opener, by regaining key players and beating Aston Villa. Or is Brentford still the relegation risk that lost away to Sunderland?
    
  • Which Manchester City will turn up against Manchester United?
    
    Manchester City's loss to Brighton means the loss to Tottenham cannot be seen as a blip. It's unclear if the hosts will face the Manchester United that had a promising season opener against Arsenal, or the Manchester United that almost tripped against Burnley.
    
  • Will Sunderland do well when it visits Crystal Palace as (a) a team that has picked up 6 points so far, or (b) is it a team that only does well at the Stadium of Light (where it picked up both wins, and lost away?) And is Crystal Palace a tough team to beat but who finds it hard to score against its opponents (especially after selling Eze and losing Sarr to injury?)
    
  • Is Spurs properly good under Frank (two clean sheets and wins at the start including the win over Manchester City) or is the rosy start over after the complete capitulation to Bournemouth?
    
  • Is Spur's next opponent West Ham finally getting its act together with its 3-0 win over Nottingham or was that a freak result?
    
  • And is Bournemouth increasingly showing its class (that can make it a dark-horse title challenger or else a chaser of league spots) and can beat a tricky Brighton that just beat Manchester City?
    
    Our approach towards uncertainty is to (a) deploy existing fixture-proof players, and (b) minimise risk given that things can swing either way.
    
    • Cucurella and Joao Pedro (vs Brentford), Mbeumo (vs Man City) and Munoz (against Sunderland) are players that (a) do well against any team and (b) continue to look good this season. We are holding off on buying Mateta
• Continue our triple Spurs (Richarlison, Johnson, Porro) who are not fixture-proof but simply because the uncertain environment means there are no compelling alternatives to pursue.
• Haaland is our captaincy pick because captaincy picks should be boring. He has continued to be dangerous and profitable despite Manchester City's woes. And although opponent Manchester United is more promising in attack this season, they still look shaky in defence.
  

Here's our squad as a result. (No Arsenal players as it's still unclear who's the attacker to target; and no point getting into their defence when they play Man City next.) All the best!