Charlie Munger FPL

"Charlie Munger FPL" is the idea that big insights can sometimes take you to great picks without necessarily going too much into data. Example:

Why was Reijnders an obvious pick for us before GW1 (and now people are FOMO-ing)?

• He was priced at the tier of "defensive midfielders" - 5.5m is where you are supposed to give up on an attacking midfielder (most of them are 6.5m upwards), and scrutinise someone who can give you the most defensive contribution (DC) points
• But Reijnders is a goal-scored AND the starter for a title-challenging team AND has good fixtures - so buy!

We didn't pick Salah because the correct question isn't whether he will do well - but given his price, will he do as well as last year's record-breaking season?

• That's a high bar and his pre-season seemed poor compared to the year before (where his performance was better in the lead-up to his good season).
• His team mates were established attackers who were better AND cheaper. Haaland is cheaper with good fixtures too and his/Manchester City's form recovered towards the end of last season, etc. So those were the value buys.

Applying this to GW1's list of top defensive points by Premier League.com, we think the list needs to be broken down into:

• Players with unusually high defensive points because their team defended more than usual - e.g. those facing big teams such as Bournemouth, and may not sustain this record. (below, red)
• Players who probably will maintain this level of defensive points for example because their team is usually defensive (Crystal Palace, Nottingham) (below, orange)
• Players who may do even better because their team dominated / defended less than usual and yet the players already did well (Ait-Nouri from Manchester City, Stach from Leeds)

But of course since this is just GW1, the list can be finetuned better after next week; this is just an illustration.

What are your Charlie Munger ideas? Share them with us :)