"Charlie Munger FPL": Why most transfers in GW2 costs 10 points

GW2 is NO MAN's LAND for three clear reasons:

• Transfers are still going on, e.g. Eze's move to Arsenal, Nottingham's attacking boosts (Kalimuendo, Luiz) and Leed's too (Okafor)
• GW1, a single datapoint, by definition does not allow us to triangulate if the winning team was good or the losing team was bad. Is Aston Villa underperforming or is Newcastle solid albeit unable to convert chances? Is Brentford that awful? Is Man Utd a strong title challenger? Do we sell Wirtz? Is Leeds so good or is Everton bad? Same for Sunderland/West Ham. What happens when a defensive Crystal Palace (and without Eze) has host advantage to a defensive Nottingham? Cunha or Mbeumo?
• No clear combination of good picks entering a hot fixture run. E.g. Ekitke faces Newcastle away only to meet Arsenal next, just as Arsenal (and unproven Gyokeres) hosts Leeds only to be away at Liverpool; Man Utd is away to Fulham then hosts Man City two weeks thereafter.
• (Conversely, some players we may be tempted to sell might have a dead-cat bounce against lesser teams - or they might even change our minds - Watkins away to a weakened Brentford; Palmer away to a West Ham that lost 3-0 to Sunderland)

Most transfers this week cost around 10 points if we take into account what these risks mean: using "free" transfer is still spending 4 points in value; the high risk of transferring that player again after realising you should be buying someone else in GW3/GW4 (4 points to transfer out), and around 2pts penalty for risk premium (the transfer may not pay off and your original sale does better!)

There are perhaps only three golden transfers for this week that make sense during this uncertainty because they are likely to be in your team for the rest of the season, from most worthwhile to least:

1. Reijnders because he is shockingly cheaper, can score goals, and is part of a title-challenging team
2. Semenyo because he is a proven EPL attacker and Bournemouth is one of the few teams having a so-so run of fixtures - and only because they proved at Anfield that they score even if away to good teams (which they would need to do against Spurs and Brighton soon).
3. Evanilson, as the cheaper teammate of Semenyo who is also of proven EPL quality

So it's safe to wait even if (like us) you think our team is not best positioned for the coming week. Hold tight and enjoy the ride - and the clarity that will come thereafter!

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